Iran’s supreme leader has ordered his military to attack Israel in response to what is believed to be an Israeli assassination of a Hamas leader sheltered by Iran. What is this going to mean for the larger Middle East, and what exactly could this entail? Let’s get into it.
Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has ordered retaliation by the Iranian military against Israel. Iran likely assumed that by sheltering a Hamas figure within Iran, Israel would not take action. They correctly surmised that Iran is stuck trying to balance its need to show strength against the risk of escalation. This order, leaked to three different Iranian officials briefed on the matter, was given during an emergency meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on Wednesday morning. This was shortly after Iran announced that Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader, had been killed in Iran along with two members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
This follows an April attack by Iran on Israel, where they fired a huge salvo of drones and missiles in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its embassy compound that killed several Iranian military commanders in Damascus. This, in turn, was a response to Iranian support for Houthi rebels and other groups within Syria. The April strike by Iran was subdued because Iran didn’t make a secret of it. The drones followed a known flight path, making interdiction easy. Subsequently, Iranian-backed rebels launched a drone into Tel Aviv, which managed to skirt Israeli air defenses.
Initially, Iran’s response was to make a big show of force without aiming for high effectiveness. However, Israel likely didn’t get the message, and Iran will certainly have to respond with something more impactful. Iran needs to project strength to its people and the rest of the Middle East. Iran’s positioning as a defender of Muslims against Israel and the West is crucial to its religious theocracy.
Despite their strong rhetoric, many Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, are reluctant to become deeply involved in the conflict. Iran is as closely involved as a third-party country can be, given its support for Hezbollah and Hamas. However, Israel’s recent strike, in response to a drone attack on a Tel Aviv soccer field, has escalated the situation. The US is likely displeased with this escalation, but it appears Israel is ignoring calls for restraint.
The senior Hamas leader killed in the Israeli strike was known for his inflammatory rhetoric and actions. He praised attacks on Israeli civilians and opposed normalization agreements with other countries. His death is significant, but it also underscores the ongoing cycle of violence. Both Iran and Israel are playing dangerous games with civilian lives. Iran’s use of proxies and potential direct military action could lead to more civilian casualties, which would force Israel to respond.
This conflict is marked by politicians playing games with civilian lives to protect their images and political agendas. Iran’s supporters and government officials have expressed outrage at the failure to prevent the assassination, with some suggesting a mole within the Iranian inner circle.
