West Asia is sitting on a knife’s edge, waiting for Iran to attack, suffering in suspense about when and how that attack will come. It has been almost two weeks since Israel launched strikes in Lebanon and Iran, marking an escalation. Iran has vowed to retaliate, and the region and the world are bracing for it. Flights are being diverted almost daily now, and the Iranian proxy Hezbollah has been firing rockets into Israel. Today, Hamas fired two rockets from Gaza.
The Americans are sending more warships in anticipation, but Iran has yet to strike. Every day, new reports and assessments are released. The latest one suggests that Iran and its proxies could strike within 24 hours, with targets potentially extending beyond Israel to include American assets.
“We share the assessment made by our Israeli counterparts that something could happen as soon as this week by Iran and its proxies,” said a U.S. official. The U.S. has a significant presence in West Asia and is reinforcing its defenses. First, they sent an aircraft carrier with 35 fighter jets, and now they are deploying a guided missile submarine, the USS Georgia, to the region. Clearly, the Americans are concerned, and with good reason. They have multiple bases and extensive military assets in the region, which have been under attack since the Israel-Hamas war began last year.
During the Gaza War, U.S. and allied forces faced more than 170 attacks. There were 102 incidents reported from Syria, another 70 from Iraq, and one from Jordan. These attacks have left people dead or wounded, with at least 145 U.S. military personnel dead or wounded in these incidents. The most recent attack occurred just eight days ago, on August 5th, targeting the Al-Asad airbase in Iraq, used by the U.S. and its allies. In most cases, Iranian proxies are behind these attacks.
As Israel intensifies attacks on Gaza, these proxies target American military assets. So far, this has been a low-intensity conflict, but things could change. There is a growing fear that Iran might order its proxies to scale up these operations and strike U.S. military assets with greater force. The Houthis in Yemen are already issuing threats, signaling their operations toward occupied Palestine and the Israeli enemy, and coordinating with the axis in any joint operations.
American military bases remain vulnerable, as does Israel. If Iran attacks, Israel will be at the top of the target list, especially after the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed on Iranian soil in Tehran. Mossad agents planted a bomb in his apartment two months ago, which detonated when the Hamas leader arrived there. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the operation, but there is little doubt that they were behind it. Now, Israel is bracing for a direct attack.
“We take seriously the statements and remarks by our enemies, and therefore we are at peak preparedness for attack and defense, acting according to the instructions of the political level,” said an Israeli official. While it’s unclear when and how Iran will attack, or what the scale of the attack would be, Israel is not waiting to find out. It is issuing warnings, stating that targeting the civilian population would cross a red line.
Reports indicate that Israeli leaders are also considering other options, such as a preemptive strike on one of the Iranian proxies, which could easily spiral out of control. Western diplomats are trying to prevent this escalation. On Monday, they sent a message to Tehran, asking Iran to stand down. Iran’s response was sharp: “Such a request lacks political logic, flies in the face of the principles and rules of international law, and constitutes public and practical support for Israel.”
It’s hard to argue with this, and it raises the question of what the West was thinking by making such a request public, potentially adding fuel to the fire instead of calming the situation. While no retaliation would be ideal, expecting it would be naive. Iran believes Israel has violated its sovereignty, and it will respond, both to restore the balance of power in the region and to reassure its proxies. This likely means decisive military action. However, Iran also recognizes the consequences and is offering a way out. If Israel agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza, Iran may not strike.
Reports suggest that Iranian officials have sent this message to the West via mediators. The price of avoiding a wider regional war is a ceasefire in Gaza. Talks between Israel and Hamas are set to resume later this week, potentially hosted by Egypt or Qatar, and Iran’s offer seems aimed at these talks. Essentially, the ball is back in the court of Israel and its Western allies; they must now deliver a ceasefire.
