What will be Putin’s revenge for Ukraine’s cursed provocation?
On Tuesday, Russia issued an ominous threat to Ukraine. Its foreign intelligence services accused Ukrainian President olodymyr Zelensky of taking “insane steps” that threaten to escalate the war far beyond his country. This chilling message from Russia came after Ukraine claimed to have seized 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory during a cross-border raid. If true, this would be a significant win for Ukraine, catching the Russians off guard with a surprise assault a week ago. However, Russia is still struggling to repel the Ukrainian offensive. But how long will Ukraine be able to celebrate this supposed win?
Russia has dispatched reinforcements to the frontier territories and has evacuated tens of thousands of residents. President Putin has promised retribution. The question on everyone’s mind might be: What will Russia’s revenge really look like? Just how violent will the Russian response be?
Ukraine’s top commander says his forces have captured 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) of Russia’s Kursk region. Ukraine claims to have thrown thousands of troops at Russia’s Kursk region, capturing more than two dozen Russian towns and villages. On the ground in Kursk, intense fighting is underway between Ukrainian and Russian forces. After evacuating the region, Russian forces struck back at Ukrainian troops with missiles, drones, and airstrikes. The Russian military claims they have halted Ukraine’s advance.
According to Russian war bloggers, Ukrainian forces are trying to expand their control, but Russia is bringing in more soldiers and heavy weaponry. Reports indicate that Ukraine is taking heavy losses, both in manpower and NATO vehicles. Footage published by the Russian Defense Ministry shows Su-34 bombers striking Ukrainian troops and Russian infantry storming Ukrainian positions. Russia estimates that over 1,600 Ukrainians have been killed. Whether or not this is accurate is hard to tell. Reports suggest that Ukraine is throwing everything it has into the Kursk battle. FAB glide bombs, as well as weapons and equipment sent by NATO allies, have been deployed. Seeing the heavy losses Ukraine is facing, many are asking: Was Ukraine’s Kursk operation even worth the risk?
According to Ukrainian soldiers, the goal of the Kursk operation is to capture Russian territory as a bargaining chip and force Moscow to divert troops from the Donbas front—a worthy objective. Ukraine has managed to divert Russia’s attention from Ukraine’s eastern front line. However, analysts point out that the success of Ukraine’s operation will depend on how long it can sustain the fight. Surely, that cannot be an easy feat.
Looking at the front lines, Russia has captured large parts of Ukrainian territory and continues to push deeper into Ukraine. Ukraine has struggled to reclaim territories lost to Russia, even with NATO’s help. If Ukraine has struggled to thwart the Russian threat on its own soil, how much can it accomplish in Russian territory? Not only does Russia boast a more formidable army, but it also has the help of key allies. In Kursk, Chechen soldiers are fighting alongside Russian troops. The Chechen battalion called Akhmat is actively engaged. On Tuesday, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov published a video of his soldiers fighting alongside another Russian unit in Kursk.
In Kursk, the fighting is most intense in the town of Sudzha. It is not clear which side is currently in control of this Russian town, but on Monday, a Ukrainian soldier released a video claiming that Sudzha was not under Russian control. The Ukrainian soldier claimed that their troops had not found Russian soldiers after searching the city.
Ukraine has portrayed its Kursk assault as a de facto victory, claiming it will force Russia to reinforce other weak border regions with troops that could then not be deployed to Ukraine. In his nightly address, President Zelensky told Ukrainians that the operation in Russia was a matter of Ukrainian security. Ukraine’s Western backers, already keen on avoiding a direct NATO versus Russia war, were surprised by Ukraine’s cross-border attack last week. As for what Ukraine hopes to achieve, it’s clear that Ukraine hopes to use the Kursk raid as a bargaining chip for potential peace talks in the future.
However, by dedicating forces to Kursk, Ukraine may leave other parts of the front exposed, especially at a time when Russia has been making advances. As we said earlier, Russia has a far larger army and could easily try to encircle the Ukrainian forces. According to the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based research group, Russian forces have continued their gains unabated in recent days. Russian attacks in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine have not stopped. Capturing Donbas would be a major win for Putin, as the region has been a long-sought prize for the Russian president.
According to Russian officials, Ukraine is trying to show its Western backers that it can still muster major military operations, just as pressure mounts on both Kyiv and Moscow to agree to talks about halting the war. Remember, Russia sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022 and now controls 18% of Ukrainian territory. Until the surprise attack on Russia’s Kursk region last week, Ukraine had been losing territory to Russian forces despite hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. and European aid. It did not stop or reverse the Russian advance.
After more than two years of the most intense land war in Europe since World War II, both Moscow and Kyiv have shown signs of fatigue. They are pondering possible talks, though in public, both are still far apart on what that would actually look like. Ukraine’s Kursk assault could go one of two ways: it could invite a furious response from Putin, dragging the war on for many more months, or it could force Russia to come to the negotiating table—though that seems like wishful thinking for now. All eyes are on Russia. How will Putin respond to Ukraine’s provocation? We will have to wait and see.
